The "Occupations with the fastest growth" (Table 1) and the "Occupations with the largest numerical growth" (Table 2) definitely demonstrate that a college degree is not going to be necessary for a huge segment of our future workforce.
I suppose kids could go to college, get their degree, and then end up working as home health aides earning minimum wage as they spend their lives spoon-feeding and changing diapers for aging baby boomers, a job with very bright prospects. But that seems like an expensive and personally disappointing way to go, not to mention the years it will take for those folks to pay off all their student loans for a college education which is increasingly expensive.
As far as elder care goes, Japan seems to be leading the way with robots that perform those types of tasks (and HERE and HERE).
I do know that College For All doesn't make sense, and roll my eyes when I hear people talk so passionately about it. Other than that, I don't know the answer.
More on the debate at Thoughts on Public Education, “A schism on college readiness.”
---------- From the Occupational Outlook Handbook (2010-11 Edition) -----------
Employment change by detailed occupation
Occupational growth can be considered in two ways: by the rate of growth and by the number of new jobs created by growth. Some occupations both have a fast growth rate and create a large number of new jobs. However, an occupation that employs few workers may experience rapid growth, although the resulting number of new jobs may be small. For example, a small occupation that employs just 1,000 workers and is projected to grow 50 percent over a 10-year period will add only 500 jobs. By contrast, a large occupation that employs 1.5 million workers may experience only 10 percent growth, but will add 150,000 jobs. As a result, in order to get a complete picture of employment growth, both measures must be considered.
Occupations with the fastest growth. Of the 20 fastest growing occupations in the economy (table 1), half are related to healthcare. Healthcare is experiencing rapid growth, due in large part to the aging of the baby-boom generation, which will require more medical care. In addition, some healthcare occupations will be in greater demand for other reasons. As healthcare costs continue to rise, work is increasingly being delegated to lower paid workers in order to cut costs. For example, tasks that were previously performed by doctors, nurses, dentists, or other healthcare professionals increasingly are being performed by physician assistants, medical assistants, dental hygienists, and physical therapist aides. In addition, patients increasingly are seeking home care as an alternative to costly stays in hospitals or residential care facilities, causing a significant increase in demand for home health aides. Although not classified as healthcare workers, personal and home care aides are being affected by this demand for home care as well.
Table 1. Occupations with the fastest growth | ||||
Occupations | Percent change | Number of new jobs (in thousands) | Wages (May 2008 median) | Education/training category |
Biomedical engineers | 72 | 11.6 | $ 77,400 | Bachelor's degree |
Network systems and data communications analysts | 53 | 155.8 | 71,100 | Bachelor's degree |
Home health aides | 50 | 460.9 | 20,460 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Personal and home care aides | 46 | 375.8 | 19,180 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Financial examiners | 41 | 11.1 | 70,930 | Bachelor's degree |
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists | 40 | 44.2 | 72,590 | Doctoral degree |
Physician assistants | 39 | 29.2 | 81,230 | Master's degree |
Skin care specialists | 38 | 14.7 | 28,730 | Postsecondary vocational award |
Biochemists and biophysicists | 37 | 8.7 | 82,840 | Doctoral degree |
Athletic trainers | 37 | 6.0 | 39,640 | Bachelor's degree |
Physical therapist aides | 36 | 16.7 | 23,760 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Dental hygienists | 36 | 62.9 | 66,570 | Associate degree |
Veterinary technologists and technicians | 36 | 28.5 | 28,900 | Associate degree |
Dental assistants | 36 | 105.6 | 32,380 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
Computer software engineers, applications | 34 | 175.1 | 85,430 | Bachelor's degree |
Medical assistants | 34 | 163.9 | 28,300 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
Physical therapist assistants | 33 | 21.2 | 46,140 | Associate degree |
Veterinarians | 33 | 19.7 | 79,050 | First professional degree |
Self-enrichment education teachers | 32 | 81.3 | 35,720 | Work experience in a related occupation |
Compliance officers, except agriculture, construction, health and safety, and transportation | 31 | 80.8 | 48,890 | Long-term on-the-job training |
SOURCE: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and Division of Occupational Outlook |
Developments from biotechnology research will continue to be used to create new medical technologies, treatments, and pharmaceuticals. As a result, demand for medical scientists and for biochemists and biophysicists will increase. However, although employment of biochemists and biophysicists is projected to grow rapidly, this corresponds to only 8,700 new jobs over the projection period. Increased medical research and demand for new medical technologies also will affect biomedical engineers. The aging of the population and a growing focus on health issues will drive demand for better medical devices and equipment designed by these workers. In fact, biomedical engineers are projected to be the fastest growing occupation in the economy. However, because of its small size, the occupation is projected to add only about 11,600 jobs.
Increasing financial regulations will spur employment growth both of financial examiners and of compliance officers, except agriculture, construction, health and safety, and transportation.
Self-enrichment teachers and skin care specialists will experience growth as consumers become more concerned with self-improvement. Self-enrichment teachers are growing rapidly as more individuals seek additional training to make themselves more appealing to prospective employers. Skin care specialists will experience growth as consumers increasingly care about their personal appearance.
Of the 20 fastest growing occupations, 12 are in the associate degree or higher category. Of the remaining 8, 6 are in an on-the-job training category, 1 is in the work experience in a related occupation category, and 1 is in the postsecondary vocational degree category. Eleven of these occupations earn at least $10,000 more than the National annual median wage, which was $32,390 as of May 2008. In fact, 9 of the occupations earned at least twice the National median in May 2008.
Occupations with the largest numerical growth. The 20 occupations listed in table 2 are projected to account for more than one-third of all new jobs—5.8 million combined—over the 2008-18 period. The occupations with the largest numerical increases cover a wider range of occupational categories than do those occupations with the fastest growth rates. Health occupations will account for some of these increases in employment, as will occupations in education, sales, and food service. Office and administrative support services occupations are expected to grow by 1.3 million jobs, accounting for about one-fifth of the job growth among the 20 occupations with the largest growth. Many of the occupations listed in the table are very large and will create more new jobs than occupations with high growth rates. Only 3 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations—home health aides, personal and home care aides, and computer software application engineers—also are projected to be among the 20 occupations with the largest numerical increases in employment.
Table 2. Occupations with the largest numerical growth | ||||
Occupations | Number of new jobs (in thousands) | Percent change | Wages (May 2008 median) | Education/training category |
Registered nurses | 581.5 | 22 | $ 62,450 | Associate degree |
Home health aides | 460.9 | 50 | 20,460 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Customer service representatives | 399.5 | 18 | 29,860 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food | 394.3 | 15 | 16,430 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Personal and home care aides | 375.8 | 46 | 19,180 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Retail salespersons | 374.7 | 8 | 20,510 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Office clerks, general | 358.7 | 12 | 25,320 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Accountants and auditors | 279.4 | 22 | 59,430 | Bachelor's degree |
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants | 276.0 | 19 | 23,850 | Postsecondary vocational award |
Postsecondary teachers | 256.9 | 15 | 58,830 | Doctoral degree |
Construction laborers | 255.9 | 20 | 28,520 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
Elementary school teachers, except special education | 244.2 | 16 | 49,330 | Bachelor's degree |
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer | 232.9 | 13 | 37,270 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers | 217.1 | 18 | 23,150 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks | 212.4 | 10 | 32,510 | Moderate-term on-the-job training |
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants | 204.4 | 13 | 40,030 | Work experience in a related occupation |
Management analysts | 178.3 | 24 | 73,570 | Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience |
Computer software engineers, applications | 175.1 | 34 | 85,430 | Bachelor's degree |
Receptionists and information clerks | 172.9 | 15 | 24,550 | Short-term on-the-job training |
Carpenters | 165.4 | 13 | 38,940 | Long-term on-the-job training |
SOURCE: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and Division of Occupational Outlook |
1 comment:
Note than when pressed, the smarter "college for all" advocates will hedge by saying by "college" they really mean "any training beyond high school."
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